Bad Idea, Mr. President

 'Mr. Assad still has strong support from many Syrians, including members of the Sunni urban class.'

 Ruling class supports ruler shock.

Can the Syrians still believe Washington’s promises?

 Hard to. I disagree with some of the points made about Iran. But the timeline of the West's inactivity seems correct.

 'All of the statements made by Washington over the past few years proved to be meaningless. Moreover, all steps taken by Washington or its European allies towards Syria have been either too little or too late, or both.'

Thousands of Egypt Islamists rally for Syria jihad

 'We must undertake jihad to help our brothers in Syria by sending them money and arms, and providing all aid to save the Syrian people from this sectarian regime.'

 I've seen it suggested that this is the reason why Obama has belated decided to maybe arm the rebels, that a popular movement will do the job instead. Note they are calling for a war on sectarianism, not on sects. It is the Assad régime that creates sectarian division, that plays up all the talk of a regional sunni-shia conflict, that has dragged in outside forces, that would like to scare the world into allowing it to stay in power.

Could Syria conflict start WWIII?

No. A more tabloid version of the bullshit that arming the rebels is the new Cuban Missile Crisis.

Comparisons

 Zoe Williams was pointing out on the Sky press preview how disingenuous the comparisons between Iraq and Syria are: there are actual chemical weapons in Syria, there wasn't a civil war in Iraq...

An Israeli Truck Reportedly Captured From The Syrian Opposition Reappears in Qusayr

 We often see these stories recycled with a warning of the conflagration that is about to engulf the region. Give us a break.

Meet The New Boss

 'Reader, let me lay this on you - arming the rebels will keep the war going,' and I was no longer reading.

Cockburn on Syria: Prejudice offered up as wisdom

 'Patrick Cockburn knows he can't depend on understatement to soft-pedal Assad, so he offers up what aspires to be an impressive version of "this is a great big mess". Of course the underlying message is that the West ought to stay out of the great big mess, and it will be a disastrous to arm the rebels. This disingenuous pessimism is made plausible and respectable by standard techniques flaunting purported authority and expertise.

For that matter, not even Assad in an Iranian proxy. The Iranians are cruel and calculating, but they are not idiots. They don't go in for sectarian massacres and they don't delight in shabiha gangs running amok on steroids and booze, flaunting their syrupy Assad tattoos. Hizbollah, disciplined and judicious, is more Iran's idea of a proxy.

As for the rest of the area, it's a lark for Israel, not at all dangerous for Jordan and Turkey, and more of the same for Iraq, where Shia-Sunni violence never stopped. As for Lebanon, since the Christians and Druze so far are absolutely out of the picture, there's real danger, but hardly anything like an Iraqi-level conflagration.

The Syria conflict may indeed ignite the whole region. China may invade Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam. Or maybe Syria and Lebanon are about to get past violent repression and enter into a brighter future. Anything is possible, but invoking mere possibilities shouldn't pass for analysis.'

Britons fighting with Syria's jihadi 'band of brothers'

 Channel 4 News has been generally poor on Syria, tonight - SHOCK! There might be 700 Europeans fighting to free Syria (so 'jihadists'), and they might get American weapons!!! - of which their commentary on the film below is an example, but there was an interview with the film-maker, Bilal Abdul Kareem who has spent seven months with the Battalion of Migrants who pointed out the difference between the rebels, even the jihadis, and the government. Are abuses SOP or isolated incidents? They are SOP on the government side, they celebrate their killings on Youtube. They are isolated incidents on the rebel side, denounced by the vast majority and punished.

 The Channel4+1 has come on while I've been trying to post, so here are a couple of quotes:

 "The Syrian people won't live or die according to what American weapons they get."

 "Try to understand who these people fighting jihad are, and are their aims really incompatible [with ours]?"

 "I think you're labouring under a misconception. Whenever you have tens of thousands of people fighting you're going to have incidents."

 Damn, couldn't really get the rest of it, but rebels who commit abuses are punished, not so on the government side.

The Revolting Syrian

 "We’ve been systematically let down over the last 2.5 yrs. I'll believe US arming when I see it …"

 "Didn't you say you don't want ANY sort of foreign intervention??"

 "No, I never said that. If US arms to the FSA can stop and defeat Assad then I’m all for it. His massacres needs to end."

This is what the people of Syria are enduring to free our country

 'These are the men that are fighting for our eventual freedom. These are the people enduring the most hellish of nightmares so our children can live in peace. These are the men that deserve the respect and gratitude that we can never hope to repay.

 The very least we can do is take a minute to mourn these heroes.'

As Assad's and Hezbullah forces prepare to invade Aleppo, they being with the Scuds

 'So is the "strategy" to re-take Syria from the people and re-oppress them. To bomb the hell out of a town for weeks, then invade and murder the few survivors that remain.

 Assad has already lost. The fact that he needs to bomb most of the country and use foreign mercenaries to invade the town’s and cities across Syria proves as much. The question remains how many people will he and his mercenaries kill before they are defeated.'

London protest on Saturday 15th: Stop Western Intervention in Syria

 Pro-Assad demo in Mayfair tomorrow.

Power draw drops off

 'Syria, which is engaged in its own conflict, registered nearly a 50 percent decrease.'

 I saw somerone say that if Assad survives, a million Syrians will die and ten million will be refugees. I think the economic data might well show that the régime cannot return the country to normal function, though it may kill that many trying.

Morton Grove man explores war-torn Syria

 ' “Before the revolution, when I lived there, the regime would arrest anyone with a tattoo, long hair, a long beard, for listening to rock music or even for just wearing shorts,” Mousa said. 

 “Despite the destruction, it was nice to see people free and happy.”

 For Smith, who was born and raised in the U.S., the trip gave him perspective on racism.

 “People think they’re being patriotic by being disrespectful to Arabs,” Smith said. “But that’s not true. We never felt threatened on our trip and we saw how all those people love and work just like we do. It’s fascism that we should hate.”

[On Jabhat-al-Nusra]
“They turned out to be real nice and excited to see us.” '

Touched by Magic

 'It's true that confessional groups are fighting against each other, that Syrian soldiers are killing Syrian rebels and vice versa. But it's still not a civil war. If a civil war is to be avoided, the government must fall. The Syrian people will only find unity in a democracy, and that will not come about as long as Assad is in power. The sooner the regime goes, the greater the chance that we'll be able to rebuild our nation and grow together to form one society.'

Old Homs Under Siege for a Year

 'The “siege” of the 14 neighborhoods in Homs is a special case – and is not similar to other Syrian cities. It is a reminder of the siege of Gaza. However, in Homs there are no secret tunnels to smuggle basic supplies, medical aid and injured and sick people. In Homs, a few thousand people are trapped in an area where there were 400,000 people residing.'

 I suppose the rest are fled or dead.

Worries

 "We've got measures in place to make sure that transport doesn't fall into the wrong hands." - David Cameron.

 Miliband says we should focus on the peace conference, but also worries about the hands aid will get into. How are you going to stop Assad killing civilians, by appealing to the Russians' better nature perhaps?

We can't just say 'arm Syrian rebels' – we must be clear what this means

 Or let's throw up a smokescreen to justify not arming the rebels. Either there are so many weapons that some more will make no difference, or the rebels can't be trained, or have better things to do with the weapons than fight Assad. Tosh.

For some, the best bad choice: Returning from refuge to Syria

 'Refugees say many of the returnees are from areas in Syria’s southern Dera’a Governorate that have been "liberated" by the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) - UNHCR said in April this constituted 80 percent of returnees.

 "We want to go back and stand with our people,” he said. “We want to do something about the massacres, killings, and rape instead of being stuck in the desert feeling helpless.” '

Assad’s Unlikely Allies: Who In The West Is Supporting The Maligned Syrian Dictator, And Why

 'Assad advocates, few in number but strong in conviction, consist mostly of extreme right-wing, almost-fascist political parties in France and Italy.'

Prospects for the Syrian revolution

 'The first speaker was from the http://syriafreedomforever.wordpress.com/blog, an indispensable resource for understanding Syria from a Marxist standpoint. Even though he is presently not based in Syria, the blogger had to have his identity concealed during a Skype video call since it is entirely conceivable that the Baathist goons might want to track him down. 

 The second speaker was Anand Gopal, who quite simply is the most informed person on the American left about Syria, both theoretically and as a journalist who has taken great risks to tell the true story of the revolutionary struggle.'

Finding Hope in Syria

 'One of our Peacemakers is Hind Kabawat, a lawyer from Damascus, who recently returned to Syria through Turkey to provide training in a village that had been "liberated" by those fighting the Syrian president, Assad.

 "I am a Syrian like you, from Damascus, coming to tell you that you are not alone, and that all of humanity is standing in solidarity with your blessed hearts." '

Why does the left find it so difficult to take a position on Syria?

 I'd disagree with the contention that, "others wholeheartedly back the rebels, ignoring the Salafi religious extremists that have infiltrated the movement" - they haven't been ignored by the pro-revolution left, but kept in proportion and not seen as the important threat to Syrians that is the government in Damascus - but otherwise Assed Baig writes well here.

 The comments are uniformly disappointing.

Fleeing Syria

 "We escaped from Bashar al-Assad, and people have treated us just as badly."

Is now the time to arm the Syrian opposition?

 More to the point than I'd expected. The guy from the Henry Jackson Society reminded me of Nick Cohen's piece in this morning's Observer: half his case I'd agree with, the other half is the sort of imperialism Syrians should run a mile to avoid. Also with Nick, you get hysteria about those who disagree with him, and a complete lack of criticism of those who say what he thinks is the right thing.

[http://www.guardian.co.uk/.../09/william-hague-syria-policy]

Syrian opposition denounces ‘Iranian invasion,’ says world must act

 ' “There is a large number of Hezbollah fighters in an Aleppo military academy. They are in charge of training, recruitment and leading military operations in the province.”

 The FSA leader urged the “Friends of Syria” group to send helicopters, anti-tanks arms instead of “food supplies and medicine” to the rebels. Meanwhile, he described European fighters backing rebels as an “individual case” of people who infiltrated Syrian borders.

 Idriss, who also participated in the Istanbul conference on Saturday, said the FSA will fight Hezbollah, but, FSA will not transfer the conflict into Lebanon.'

 There "are" a large number of Hezbollah fighters might be better. Other than that, another sign that it is the opposition that wants to confine the conflict to overthrowing Assad, the régime and its allies that wants to make it about a spreading poxy sectarian war.

The Battle for Aleppo

 'I wonder what he makes of Jabhat al-Nusra’s phenomenal rise as the rebellion grinds on. “Ninety-nine percent of them will lay down their guns when the regime falls; they are good people and don’t like what their leaders are saying.” Like every other Syrian rebel I meet, however, Abdul Kareem knows they are the coming thing. “Say there are 5,000 Nusra here now,” he says, spitting out the words. “Next year, I promise you there will be 50,000.” '

What are your chances if you're a Syrian citizen now?

 'You can join the revolt, which may involve you in the crimes of murder, kidnapping, pillage and rape.'

 Charles Glass slanders by maybe. It is the Geneva talks, which promise nothing but compromise with the torturers, which offer a continuation of the horrors.

Snipers of Aleppo

 'What does he think when he sees his people having to run across the street from Assad's snipers?

 "You wish you could explode yourself. But we are going to hold fast. We plead to Allah, to elect him as his men on Earth, and we will defend them until our last drop of blood." '

 How do we know who to arm in Syria? Maybe start with this guy. Probably much of the weaponry will fall into the hands of Muslims, and that's not a bad thing. They're trying to free Syria from Assad, not diverting Stinger missiles to Afghanistan or flying planes into the World Trade Centre.

Is #Qusayr Assad's 1st major victory in over a year?

 Reuters: "What Qusair also underlines is how a conflict that began as an Arab Spring uprising against dictatorship is turning into a proxy war pitting Iran against the West and its Arab allies - a contagious contest that has spread east and west of Syria.

 Clay Claiborne: "Oh really? Where was the West in Qusayr? Where were the Arab allies?
True enough, Assad has brought in Hezbollah from Lebanon, as well as fighters from Iran and Iraq, but the Syria revolutionaries have no proxies even while the media imagines they do."

Doctor in Syria's Qusayr pleads for help

 "It is a serious catastrophe. The martyrs are more than 200. We have no time to bury them. Some stayed for days in the streets. The smell of death is all over the place, it is not human. Where is the world, where are the organisations who are claiming to help the people? We have lost everything."

Proxy war in Syria is part shadow boxing

 Alex Callinicos would appear not to know what he wants to say about Syria:

 "But there is a definite danger that geopolitics will overwhelm the revolution in Syria. This doesn’t mean that there is a serious prospect of a direct confrontation between Britain and France and Russia over Syria."

 I think he finally explains in what way he thinks geopolitics will overwhelm the revolution in the last line, but it is a throwaway comment rather than analysis.

 "But the proxy war that outside powers are trying to wage in Syria may precipitate a widening sectarian implosion."

 There are really boxes of weaponry arriving in Syria from Russia, the revolutionaries are much poorer armed. The West is vacillating, but he ought to be saying that they should be providing arms to the rebels, rather than vaguely saying that everything that is real is wrong.

Jumblat Slams Nasrallah's 'War against Takfiris': Syrian Regime Uses al-Nusra to Execute Attacks

 'The Druze leader reiterated his support to the “Syrian people's revolution against injustice, dictatorship and oppression,” but stressed his rejection to all calls that refuse to recognize other religious sects.

 "(Influential Muslim cleric Yusuf) Qaradawi's call to expiate Allawites is completely unacceptable and contradicts with Islamic Sharia,” Jumblat declared.

 "Such fatwas (Islamic edicts) generate hatred and establish long-term sectarian conflicts.” '

The Preview Trailer For Not Anymore: A Story Of Revolution

 "We can talk, and express our opinions about anything; and that's worth it."

Russia blocks UN ‘declaration of alarm’ on Syria’s Qusayr

 It doesn't matter to the Russians, or their fans in the Stop The War movement, that thousands of civilians have no food and are being bombarded, because it is their ally Assad who is doing it.
The government may win this fight - though the longer it goes on, the more it looks like it has played every card in its hand - but it can never return the areas it controls to any sort of normality.

Writing the Revolution - The Voices from Tunis to Damascus

 'Bashar al-Assad has proved to be as brutal as his father in the suppression of dissent. Every day there is more bloodshed and new horrors are witnessed; Dunia calls it the revolution of the mobile phone versus the bullet.'

The Syrian crisis and Hezbollah

 'What made Hezbollah strong and respected was that its constituency transcended sectarian, and even religious and ideological boundaries. Hezbollah found support among Shiites, Sunnis, Christians, nationalists, leftists and even in political movements in the West... As of May 25, 2013, Hezbollah has become a local actor only supported by the Shiite population, acting on behalf of Iran.

 If one replaced all occurrences of “Baath dictatorship,” “al-Assad” or “the regime” in any text the Syrian rebels expressed themselves, with “Pahlavi dictatorship” or “Shah” and read this text in some demonstration in Iran in 1978, no one would be the wiser. Or, if one replaced “USA” with “Russia” in any statement released during the Iranian revolution and used this in the Syrian crisis context today, no one would know the difference. Similarly, if one replaced “Hezbollah” with “Syrian Opposition” and “Israel” with “Syria” in any statement issued by Israel in 2006, it could be easily believed that it was as a statement issued by Hasan Nasrallah, today.'

We and the Syrians

 'For 42 consecutive years since 1971, the late Hafez al-Assad and his son, President Bashar al-Assad, treated Syria as if it was their private property. We, Indonesians, are obliged by our Constitution to help the Syrians get rid of the oppressive Syrian regime.'

How Syria Became a More Dangerous Quagmire Than Iraq

 Patrick Cockburn blows a lot of smoke, and then complains about the fog of war.

S-300 anti-aircraft missiles

 'Moscow's S-300 anti-aircraft missiles – which could potentially alter the balance of power between Syria, the rebels, and Israel – are now thought unlikely to be operational for a year.'

Syrian evidence confusing because we didn’t manufacture it, admit UN members

 'Upon suggestion that the UN might have to actually intervene in Syria, government officials moaned, “Do we really have to? I’m not sure there’s much in it for us apart from helping millions of people escape an oppressive and deadly regime.” '

From Palestine… Here is the Syrian Revolution!

 'The revolutionaries, who chanted against Assad, are those who condemn any violations from the side of the opposition forces, political, military and civilian. We also support the Syrian people’s resistance, in the means that they find appropriate, whether peaceful or non-peaceful.'

Lifting the Syria arms embargo is another step towards full scale war

 Another shitty anti-revolutionary article from Lindsey German. No criticism of the Russian arms, only talking of the opposition or of Assad stepping down as bad things.

 I found it via a site associated with the pro-Israel AWL* (who themselves have switched on Syria, as their fear of Muslims outweighs their desire to bash the left), which had this:

 'An attempt at a major public meeting on the issue, held in London on 21 May, attracted only 50 people. This was a meeting organised by leftists (Counterfire and Socialist Action) to oppose Western intervention in Syria at which no platform speaker was willing to criticise the disgusting Syrian regime.'

 Nice to see they got so few for a pro-Assad meeting.

*[http://shirazsocialist.wordpress.com/…/stop-the-war-degene…/]

Western arms threaten Syria’s troubled revolt

 Al-Qusayr should have a hyphen rather than a question mark, I think. While most of the warnings about the perils of Western influence may be timely, the suggestion seems to be that no military aid would be best. I don't think the FSA is in a position to be quite so snooty.

 Simon Assaf: 

 'Europe’s weapons would be funnelled through select Free Syrian Army (FSA) channels. The aim is to bolster the pro-Western section of the opposition leadership and reduce the influence of Islamist and revolutionary brigades.'

 Anyone who actually provides support to the Syrian people is likely to increase their influence, but I don't see that receiving Western arms would change the character of the FSA. And what is making anyone stay 'pro-Western' if they don't want to, once victory is achieved?

Lessons from Raqqa: from demanding freedom to creative state-building

 'If anyone can achieve the impossible, it is Syrians. They have turned the French students uprising´s slogans - "Be realistic, demand the impossible" - into "Be realistic and make the impossible." '

Watch what the west does on Syria, not what it says

 'On both sides of the Atlantic, the intelligence and security establishments tend to take a more cautious line than the politicians and diplomats.'

 None of them have provided any weapons yet, so how cautious do they need to get?

 'Worries about jihadists continue to rank higher than the desire to topple the Assad regime.'

 Indeed. The proxy war theorists are talking nonsense.

Chemical gas kills one in Damascus

 Documentation of the Baniyas massacre has also reached the BBC. [http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22684359] Ian Pannell's editor is still calling it a 'massacre'.

 And his report was "Can't be sure what happened", "Country soaked in blood." Rather than it being obvious that it is the government militias that do sectarian massacres, and that government needs to be overthrown to stop the bloodshed. Nothing will ever be normal again while Assad or his power structure remains.

Too Much Information

 Just before I got in the bath, Martin Butcher, arms policy adviser for Oxfam, was on the BBC talking about Syria. I missed most of the interview, but he made three points at the end, to discourage support for the Syrian rebels, with all of which I disagree.

 1. If the West arms the rebels, Russia and Iran will increase their deliveries.
Not arming the rebels hasn't discouraged them. They deliver tonnes of weaponry every week, it's probably reached saturation point. It was estimated a while ago that the régime is paying the Russians a billion dollars a month, and would run out of money by June. I could go on.

 2. The FSA has no proper command and control structure.
Leaving aside how much truth there is in this (like many statements about the opposition, it has been widely retailed , while the actual statistics point in the opposite direction), when you are trying to overthrow the government, it is those with weapon supplies that can command allegiance.

 3. The FSA collaborates with the Islamist of Jabhat-al-Nusra on a daily basis.
They're trying to overthrow the same dictator. What's the FSA supposed to do, say they'll have a war against al-Nusra first, or stoke up a peace pipe and hope all the bad people go away?
Kevin Maguire and Faye Adams were similarly anti supporting the rebels on Sky's press preview last night.

 Fawaz Gerges has added:

 1. There is no military solution to the conflict.
The rebels have beaten back the régime without much isolated support, so I think this is a hypothesis designed to support a conclusion.

 2. This has mutated into a proxy war, no longer a fight between the opposition and the government.
It's a fight between the same Syrians who asked for justice in 2011, against a government bolstered by thousands of soldiers from Hezbollah, a lot of Russian and Iranian munitions, and diplomatic cover from Russia and China.

A left-wing response to left-wing delusions on Syria

 'As a Leftist activist, one would have thought you would mention – at least once, in passing – the popular uprising or the revolution, what Syrians think and want, or anything remotely related to people. Instead, all you obsess about is big politics from a statist perspective: regime change, foreign intervention, regional war, Israel, Iran, blah blah blah.'

The Wilder Side

 'In this edition, Nick Redmayne revisits the chaotic streets (and choking traffic) of Benghazi, to find out how Libya's 'rebel city' is faring after Gaddafi.

 "Nobody said liberty was neat and orderly." '

 It isn't true that Libyans were better off under Gaddafi, any more than Syrians are better off under Assad.

Syrian Revolution dance in Paris

 'Anti-Assad fighters dance in Paris.'

The Obstacles that Face the Syrian Rebels to Capture Damascus

 'The rebels will cut the regime’s supply routes from the south and east. This will allow them to advance in Damascus more quickly and let the grip on Assad tighten. In contrast, this strategy has a down side in which the Damascus residents will have to flee their homes to the countryside or to Lebanon due to the intensive shelling technique, which the regime will use to delay the rebels marching towards downtown Damascus.

 The complete capturing of Damascus is inevitable, but it is a way yet too far to accomplish, contrary to what is broadcasted in the media about the beginning of the battle in summer 2013.

 It would be accelerated if the west increase the aid for the Syrian rebels, supply them with sophisticated weapons and establish a buffer zone in Daraa’, but Mr.Obama is busy, right now, with the American middle class rather than the middle east issues. He does not want to be involved in a war that may damage the U.S economy.'