Is Daraa about to become another of Assad's atrocities?

 

  Sam Hamad:

 'It's with characteristic savagery that the Assad régime, bolstered by Iranian forces, attempts to finally conquer Daraa, the area considered by many to be the birthplace of Syria's 11-year-old revolution.

 Unlike other areas of Syria liberated by the rebels only to be militarily conquered by Assad, Iran and Russia, Daraa was to be different. Russia, sensing an opportunity to become the major hegemonic power in the Middle East, decided that liberated Daraa would be spared the typical brutality that had been visited upon other rebel-held areas it had helped the Assad régime to conquer.

 But in contrast to the role of Russia as the imperialistic pacifier of the rebellious people, the ceasefire deal in Daraa was supposed to showcase its other role - its role as the coloniser; as capable of providing 'reconciliation' and stability as it was of destruction. And so Russia thought of its grand colonial vision of 'reconstruction', which really meant Russia becoming the imperialist suzerain over what's left of Syria.

 In Russia's vision for Syria, the financial and geopolitical exploitation of the country for decades to come provides it with all kinds of money-spinning ventures bringing in investment from Russia's allies, and the ever-more Assad-friendly Gulf states and Arab League. This in turn could prompt ideological allies among the EU and western world to get in on the 'scramble for Syria' somewhere along the way.



 But underpinning all of this, was proving to the region and the world that there was stability in Syria - Israel would ramp up attacks on Iranian forces close to its border, while Jordan wants to avoid more refugees adding to the 700,000 Syrians it already hosts, or the destabilisation of its southern border. The Daraa deal was supposed to, in the face of the US retreat, announce that Russia was now the main guarantor of stability in the region.

 That's why Russia did not allow the same genocidal fate of Aleppo and Homs to befall Daraa when the pro-régime forces looked to conquer it in 2018. It's now clear to everyone that Russia is the guarantor of very little in Syria, and that the foundations of the deal were always built of sand. Assad-Iran only grudgingly supported it, with the expectation that the ceasefire was merely a means to pave the way for their total conquest of Daraa.

 Under the 2018 deal, the province was to be split in two: the eastern side, fully occupied by the Assad régime, and the western side, including Daraa City, was to be put under semi-autonomous control of rebel forces and civilian revolutionary forces, forming elected Central Committees representing different areas of the semi-autonomous zone.

 The régime would take over the running of social provisions, and the rebels would hand over heavy weaponry and be incorporated into the Russian-created 'Fifth Corps' of the Syrian Arab Army, which would work with Russia to police the area, denying Assad and Iran any military access.



 Since the deal was struck, Assad has probed for ways to tear it apart. With economic collapse in Assad's kleptocratic rump state putting Syrians at threat of mass starvation, Daraa has become a natural hotbed of resistance and protest. The fact it operates with elected central committees and with essential autonomy has made it antithetical to the régime, especially if it provides an incentive to other suffering Syrians.

 When the autonomous province decided to boycott the absurd fixed presidential election earlier this year that saw the Syrian dictator returned to power with 95% of the vote, Assad began a brutal siege on Daraa.

 The siege then turned into an all-out offensive, with Assad shelling civilian areas, leading to over 90 deaths, including women and children. Eighty percent of the population have been 'evacuated', while Daraa al-Balad, the name for the southern part of Daraa city, is now completely besieged and its residents face starvation.

 To anyone who has paid attention to Syria's civil war, these genocidal tactics are all too familiar. But so far, they're missing the Russian ingredient that could be decisive. The rebels have managed to put up fierce resistance and have on many occasions got the better of the régime - without Russian airpower, régime forces remain vulnerable.

 Russia's attempts to create what we're supposed to believe could be a lasting ceasefire within a ceasefire would be comical were it not for the scale of the tragedy at stake. Though Russian intervention assured Assad's military success, in reality, Russia finds itself increasingly overstretched in the country; it has not carved stability out of Assad's parochial ultra-corrupt rump state and Iran's often quite divergent interests.

 Iran rules on the ground and has the most control over Assad, given many of its Revolutionary Guard forces and proxy militias give the régime much needed manpower. As we've seen during this conflict in Daraa, Iran is actively undermining Russian 'peace' negotiations with the central committees, indicating it wants to prompt a total conquest of the region.




 It could be that Russia concedes and decides there is more to be gained from the destruction of Daraa than there is to allow it to remain alive in peace.

 Or it could be that Russia secures another fragile 'peace', but for how long? The conditions that led to the confrontation aren't simply going to disappear. The Assad régime isn't suddenly going to become a force for peace, and the people of Daraa are not going to willingly surrender their liberty.

 Though the world ought to care about the people of Daraa, the reality is that their fate lies in the hands of forces that have pursued a war of extermination against Syrians with vicious gusto. The usual superficial condemnations from the US and international community aside, there will be scant outrage if Daraa becomes yet another of the atrocities carried out by Assad that litter Syria's recent history.'

Why do so many Syrians in régime-controlled areas feel unsafe?

 

 'A recent survey shows widespread insecurity among Syrians living in the Assad régime-controlled territories.

 Syrian régime leader Bashar al Assad won a landslide election victory in May by claiming 95 percent of Syrian votes to clinch his 4th presidential term. The elections were seen as rigged by most democratic governments and credible election monitors across the world.

 But inside Syria, anger and desperation are brewing against the Assad régime, a new study conducted by Syrian Association for Citizens’ Dignity (SACD) shows.

 The SACD is a civil rights group established by Syrian refugees who live in various countries such as Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan. At least 75 percent of respondents to its latest survey are “dissatisfied with the régime’s behaviour.”

 The study was conducted through interviews with more than 500 people living in régime-controlled territories across Syria. The Syrian régime controls approximately 60 percent of the country while the US-backed YPG, which is part of the PKK terror group, rules much of northeastern Syria. Idlib, a northwestern province, is still controlled by the Syrian opposition.



 The Assad régime portrays itself as the safest option, a force that could bring political stability and public order in a country where terror groups like Al Qaeda, Daesh and the YPG have run amok. But the SARC study provides a profoundly different account.

 “Some 50 per cent of people in the Assad-controlled areas don't feel safe, including those who never left; 67 per cent of returnees from outside Syria don’t feel safe, and those in the reconciliation areas fear the worst with 94 percent saying they don’t feel safe,” the SARC survey noted.

 It’s significant that even half of the people, many of whom have often been considered Assad loyalists and continued to live under the Assad régime despite its atrocities, feel insecure under the rule of Damascus. “This shows that it is important not to equate those who remained living in Assad's areas of Syria, which people may do for any number of reasons, with loyalty or approval,” the report noted.



 The SARC report revealed that returnees feel even more insecure than people who always stayed under the régime's rule. That aspect has long been a major factor to make many Syrian refugees reluctant to return to their home country.

 But people, who have been allowed to live in former opposition areas through “reconciliation deals”, feel more insecure than anyone else. Reconciliation deals have been conducted between Assad régime representatives and local mediators to ensure former opposition fighters will disarm and surrender.



 While the Assad régime claims to have normalised areas controlled by Damascus, evidence collected by various independent bodies shows that it has been used as a political tactic to tighten the régime's control over people.

 Despite the reconciliation deals, a lot of people, who were part of the process, were not only continuously targeted by the régime, but also subjected to arbitrary arrests and other inhumane treatment, according to many studies.

 The SARC report also confirms it.

 “Campaigns of arrest and enforced disappearance are still ongoing, including against those covered by 'reconciliation agreements' and those who have been included in régime-issued amnesty, which highlights a lack of any kind of security guarantee in Syria,” the report said.

 “19 per cent of those arrested were covered by amnesty while 26 percent were covered by 'reconciliation agreement'. The amnesty laws are almost illusory, used to falsely demonstrate goodwill without the real release of those detained for political reasons and do not represent a guarantee,” the SARC report pointed out.

 Many human rights defenders have long stated that without freedoms, there is no point to security. It’s also true that without security, people cannot exercise their freedoms. But in Syria, even the most loyal citizens lack both security and freedom stuck between a brutal régime and armed groups raging across the country, according to the SARC report.

 For general security, the report indicates that across Syria “there are no safe areas, with some of the more practical safety parameters showing that security is poor everywhere” due to the security policies of the Assad régime.

 But for freedoms, the war-torn country is “a cemetery” according to the report: “78 percent of people in Assad-controlled areas think they do not have freedom of expression, while 85 per cent think that their right to participate in peaceful demonstrations is not protected.”

 “Those who are dissatisfied have no way to express it,” it added.



 The Syrian conflict has also created perfect conditions for corruption, carried out by both the régime and armed groups. Exploiting the absence of any real security and the rule of law, régime representatives have used their positions to extort money from ordinary people, according to the SARC report.

 A fledgling economy and widespread corruption across Syria have allowed the régime’s security forces “to intensify the use of arbitrary arrest and forced disappearance as tools of making extra money through extortion” from people who are desperate to secure their loved ones’ release or some information on their whereabouts, according to the report.

 “The heads of the security branches make the amnesty law a source of theft. The name of the person who pays more is written on the amnesty lists even though he is detained by mistake or often for no reason,” said one of the respondents to the survey.

 Even worse, corruption levels in Syria, when compared to previous years, have increased alarmingly last year, the report said.

“54 percent of respondents see that there were very high corruption rates in 2020 compared to 39 percent in 2019, up from 20 percent in 2011, meaning the perception of corruption jumped massively in the last year alone,” the SARC study reported.

 The increasing menace of corruption is one of the main reasons why Syrians who were largely subdued by the régime are unable to trust the country’s justice system.

 “48 percent of respondents said that they do not have access to the judicial system to tackle corruption issues. 59 per cent of respondents said they need to pay bribes to obtain their citizenship rights, such as obtaining documents or securing government permissions,” the report said.'

Daraa marked the start of the Syrian uprising; will it also be the beginning of the end for Assad?

 

 'After ten long years, Syria is back in the news. Although this is likely to be fleeting, as the international community has long experienced conflict fatigue with regards to Syria, it is another opportunity to focus on the terrible situation there. In a world afflicted with the ongoing pandemic, it is at times understandable for stories and situations to fall out of the public gaze, but Syria has done so far too often, even after atrocities.

 In recent days, the Assad régime and its Iranian allies have been attacking Daraa in southern Syria relentlessly; civilians have been killed. The courage of the people of Daraa, who have been demonstrating against Assad's fake election in May, is clear to see. They have essentially spoiled the victory for Assad. His artillery shelling of Daraa in retaliation is being led by his brother, Maher Al-Assad, whose troops are known as the 4th Armoured Division and are notorious for their ruthlessness.

 Whilst Maher Al-Assad being involved in offensives is no real surprise, the fact is that there is meant to be a de-escalation agreement in place in Syria which covers various zones around the country, including the Daraa province. This offensive has not been a success for the régime; it has incurred losses over the past few days as it lacked Russian air support, proving how crucial Russia is for Assad.

 These de-escalation zones were agreed to by the Assad régime at the conclusion of the Astana peace process in 2017, brokered by Russia, Iran and Turkey. The dominance of states friendly to the régime — Russia and Iran — guaranteed an outcome that was more amenable to Assad and did not demand régime change, which the process should have done. Despite this, the régime cannot abide by the agreed zones. This is the absolute minimum that Assad should be doing, but the arrogance and feeling of infallibility is so ingrained within him that he thinks he can take orders from no one. The irony is that if it wasn't for Russia's intervention in the summer of 2015, the Assad régime would probably have collapsed.



 It has been said that Assad was concerned about the outcome of the recent meeting between Russia's Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden, but it seems that the Syrian dictator has forgotten his position within this power dynamic. He is not Russia's benefactor; it is the other way around. Russia's neo imperialism in Syria will not be forgotten any time soon, and its actions in Syria — bombing hospitals despite knowing their coordinates, for example — constitute war crimes. It is unknown exactly what Biden and Putin discussed, but it is unlikely that Syria would have been top of the agenda, which means that Russian impunity is likely to continue.

 Ultimately, talk of "reconstruction" and the return of Syrian refugees cannot be serious whilst the war is ongoing and blood is still being shed. A ceasefire is an absolute minimum requirement before even talking about reconstruction, but the régime feels that it is above this as Gulf States want to re-establish diplomatic relations with Damascus. Reconstruction should not even be on the agenda as long as Assad is president; how can the arsonist become the fireman?

 Nevertheless, there are concerns that King Abdullah of Jordan – the first Arab ruler to make clear that Assad should step down — has been pushing Biden to build a road map to restore Syria's "sovereignty and unity" without opposing the idea of Assad staying in power. Jordan's main concerns are restoring customs agreements with Syria and Lebanon as their trade convoys generally pass through Jordan on the way to Saudi Arabia, as well as repatriating refugees to Syria. Any mention of sovereignty is meaningless with Russian and Iranian encroachment over the past decade. It is also worth mentioning that Jordan was part of the Military Operation Centre (MOC) led by the Americans to control military activities in southern Syria and ensure that no unknown groups were threatening the border between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

 Assad feels that the wind is blowing in his favour. The Covid-19 pandemic means that most states are busy with their own health issues, and the regional aftermath of the Beirut explosion a year ago as well as the recent Israeli air strikes on Gaza have helped push Syria further down the agenda. As important as these issues are, the predicament of the Syrian people must not be forgotten, and reconstruction cannot take place under a ruler who is still fighting and has the blood of hundreds of thousands on his hands.

 As we witness the Syrian régime attacking Daraa, where events marked the start of the Syrian uprising against Assad in March 2011, will Daraa also be the beginning of the end for his régime? Although Assad is keen to stop the war in order to announce his victory and start reconstruction, the Syrian régime is struggling to provide basic daily needs for citizens, with corruption and misuse of resources rife. Furthermore, many voices are being heard in opposition to Assad, even in areas known to be very much pro-régime, such as Latakia. This is an ominous sign for him.

 Now we must wonder if the anger and demonstrations in Daraa against Assad will extend to other areas. The Syrian economy is struggling and the vast majority of Syrian people are living below the poverty line. This might not be clear, but it is obvious that Syrian refugees cannot return home whilst Assad is still in power and the Iranians are still occupying the country. The Syrian people also believe that Russia is part of the problem and not the solution; a state that has played such a crucial role in the destruction of Syria, cannot offer a remedy to its problems. The international community fails to understand this. Worse still, it apparently does not want to.'