Monday 22 December 2014

Future Israeli Strikes in Syria: Shifting Dynamics?

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"(1) An attack by Israel against the assets of Assad/Hizbollah (2) prompts an attack in response by the Assad regime against the rebel groups (FSA and IF) and the population; (3) consequently, the opposition is weakened and ISIS is strengthened, (4) which undermines the efforts of the US in the war against the Islamic State, (5) and as a result, the US will demand that Israel now refrain from attacks in Syria."
Yes. Israel and Russia aren't about to come to blows over Syria, as the geopolitical analysts were claiming last year. Assad responds to Israeli strikes by killing civilians, and nobody seems to think that a cause to take action against Assad. The mass of the Syrian population see America as failing to help rather than being the main enemy, but when the US tolerate Assad, people are pushed towards the extreme jihadis, partly because of the US' support for Israel.
I don't think the US is so concerned to stop Israeli attacks in Syria. The US is playing a double game anyway, providing minimal support to the opposition, while assuring Iran that it won't challenge its influence in the region, reflecting incompatible objectives (as well as splits within the US administration) of involving the US as little as possible, letting Russia and Iran suffer their own Vietnam and stopping the humanitarian disaster in Syria. When they won't stop the Israelis bombing Gaza, I don't think they are going to expend too much capital here.

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