Friday, 5 September 2014
The Case For an IS 'No Drive Zone' in SyriaAmerican Thinker appear to be anti-Clinton obsessives, but this beats the Let's Not Fight WW3 on behalf of al-Qaida and the CIA line that passes for analysis on parts of the left hands down. I'm not sure 'superiorly' is a proper word.
"Specifically, in addition to a beefing up provisions of sophisticated weaponry to the rebel opposition, the U.S. can rim rebel-IS fronts with ‘No-Drive zones’ that, enforced by UAVs and/or fix-winged attack aircraft, could: a) revitalize a frayed rebel-opposition that is beleaguered and outgunned by enemies on multiple fronts; b) compel IS to turn its barrels on the Assad regime, thereby detracting resources from their campaigns against the rebels and allowing the forgoing the breathing room to organize into more cohesive and capable fighting entity.
Incidentally, it is precisely in strategically vital Aleppo province that Syria’s revolution -- whipsawed and struggling to stay afloat against encroachments by superiorly armed enemies (i.e. the Syrian Arab Army [SAA] and IS) on multiple fronts -- is on the brink of collapse.
For some, such an outcome is ideal. With the rebels out of the picture, choosing sides becomes ostensibly easier; and external support for Assad’s ‘war on terror’-- if only tacit or ‘under-the-table’-- more forthcoming.
Unfortunately, political science says that a regime victory has dangerous implications. “Violent insurgencies”, writes MIT’s Roger Peterson, “often involve death, destruction, and desecration -- all of which can create powerful emotions” that are unlikely to disappear under any postwar Assad regime; especially not one that is likely to act as authoritarian, if not more so, than ever.
Some have retorted that it’s too late; that the opposition is way too fragmented and abounds with Islamic extremists for any Western-aided rebel victory to bear fruit. But, in what Wendy Pearlman describes as a “cruel irony”, it is Western inaction that “is a cause contributing to fragmentation in Syrian rebels’ ranks as much as it has been a reaction to that fragmentation.”
How rebels are expected to cohere while being subjected to incessant carpet-bombing and assaults from two superiorly equipped foes has never been properly articulated. And considering that the average duration of civil wars since 1945 is about 10 years -- Syria’s is going on 3.5 -- neither has the argument that it’s ‘too late’ to act.
Working to rehabilitate and empower the non-global-jihadist rebel camp (the IF included) is the only way forward. The delivery of advanced weaponry/supplies is a necessary step towards this end, but it must be coupled with a strategy that magnifies its effects."
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