Syria's jigsaw as complicated as ever

 I think Ian Black is noticeably unfriendly to the opposition. From his opening line, 'Ahmed Jarba, president of the Syrian opposition coalition (SOC), is in Washington this week, flattered by the official "foreign mission" status accorded to his office,' as if Jarba were some tin pot exiled monarch. Black's initial assessment of the next Friends of Syria meeting, " No-one is holding their breath," just doesn't fit into the same jigsaw as, 'Kerry flies to London to join William Hague and other ministers to discuss "how best to significantly step-up.. support to the Syrian opposition, make urgent progress on improving the deteriorating humanitarian crisis and reinvigorate a political process that has stalled due to regime intransigence." (Weapons deliveries are unlikely to be mentioned publicly). It's an ambitious agenda.'
'Bashar al-Assad will stand for a third term as president, re-election guaranteed - despite western criticism of a "grotesque parody of democracy." ' In this case, accurate criticism, Western or otherwise.
"Meanwhile barrel bombs rain down on civilian areas with terrible consequences." No, they rain down on civilians in opposition held areas. Dropped by the government.
"Thursday's bombing of an Aleppo hotel used by the army by the Islamic Front shows that the battle for the city is not over." Or the battle for the city has been going the rebels' way. Whenever they has been a mix of gains for each side, it is presented as evidence that Assad is immovable, rather than that there is a majority of the country he can never win over no matter how much force he uses, and so it is really a question of whether the country is destroyed before he goes, not if.
"The publicised delivery of US-made TOW anti-tank missiles to one carefully-vetted Saudi-backed brigade has raised the prospect of more significant military aid to anti-Assad forces and a counter-weight to support from Iran and Hezbollah." And it could change the balance completely. If the cannot bomb people into surrendering or fleeing, the régime forces are left without a strategy.
'Intriguingly Assad spoke this week of facilitating aid deliveries (though without "compromising national sovereignty) - perhaps to counter international condemnation of his "surrender or starve" policy.' Because he might need to make he's not doing it for a while, to prevent the US 'intervening' by providing anti-aircraft missiles. As happened after the August sarin attack, when the supposed threat of a Western invasion of Syria was more important than the actual attack.
"Probably the most important thing, from the perspective of all opposition forces, is reaffirmation of the western-Gulf line that "Assad and his close associates...who have blood on their hands will not have any role to play in the future of Syria" - just as he prepares to start a triumphal third term."
Again dismissing the opposition as a Western creation, to which the policies of the West are more important than whether they provide the military materiel that would enable Syrians to determine their own destiny.
"Talk is rife of who may replace Brahimi." He's done no good for Syrians, I think it is those who see Syria's future decided in the high councils of the UN that are more interested in the progression of UN mediators.
"Whoever does take over will need to think very hard about what do next — and first of all decide whether the Geneva process or some other route to a negotiated political solution can be revived."
There is no negotiating with Assad, except for when he might leave.
"Syria's bloody crisis continues to pose lots of questions. But few of the answers are satisfactory."
I can think of one.