“The West must first change its views on the Turkish government”

 

Jamil al-Omar:

 'Frightened faces, corpses on the streets and fireballs equating to an inferno. The masses of refugee waves do not break off. Images to which one should have become accustomed. At least when it comes to Syria.

 This time however, the threat of Russia has arrived at Europe’s doorstep: Ukraine. Many believe that if they succeed in their invasion of Ukraine, the Baltic states and Scandinavian region could be their next target. Russia’s will to expand over the past decade, both militarily and politically, cannot be denied anymore. After their military campaigns in Syria and Libya, their presence in the Middle East has become a fact.

 Through the Hmeimim airbase, on the Syrian coast and the naval port in Tartus, they attained their only real access to the Mediterranean Sea which endangers the southern flank of Europe. Furthermore, it “poses a serious threat to Lebanon, Turkey and Israel in the long term,” warns Levent Kamal, a Turkey-based Middle East researcher. A deal was signed in 2019 which allows Russia to use the naval facility free of charge for 49 years and gives the Kremlin sovereign jurisdiction over the base. The agreement also allows Russia to keep a dozen warships — including nuclear-powered vessels — at Tartus, the only navy facility the Kremlin possesses outside the former Soviet Union.

 Additionally, “the presence of Iran-backed Shiite terrorist organizations, which Russia uses as a ground force in Syria, is a regional risk,” he adds. “The Russian Airbase in Kheimimim is used as a platform for Russian ops abroad, especially in Africa. They are already replacing Western support in several countries like Libya (done) or Mali (ongoing)”, notes the Twitter account Qaalat Madiq, a military analyst specializing in Syria.



 The question arises as to how this could have happened and why no one has already tried to stop Putin’s quest for power in Syria. “It should be noted that the Syrian issue was not seen as a NATO issue”, states Levent Kemal. The final nail in the coffin was when the “NATO withdrew the Patriot systems in Turkey when the Turkish army shot down the Russian warplane. Thus, the most favorable environment for Russia was created.” This attitude was, nevertheless, not without consequences. “Russia took advantage of the power vacuum that was created when the US openly signaled its lack of interest in playing a more assertive role in Syria,” explains Dareen Khalifa, a Senior Syria Analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

 Analysts claim that the only real obstacle for further expansion for Russia in the ME is Turkey and its allies in Syria. They add that Turkey has proved that they are the only one who can be a game changer on the ground in the long term. “So far Turkey has been quite successful in deterring further régime advance in Idlib post 2020”, according to Dareen Khalifa.

 To bring about real change, it takes more. Because although Turkey “does not hesitate to take a practical-military stance actively against Russia and Iran”, it seems that “the Western world continues to act as a Christian club as the Ukraine crisis has shown”, claims Levent Kamal. “The West must first change its views on the Turkish government.” As long as this attitude does not change there seems to be little hope of change either.”I do not think that support for Turkey will come true, even if it is against Russia and Iran” is Mr Kamal’s pessimistic assessment.

 It seems that this assessment is not a groundless one. The war in Ukraine gave the lie to NATO’s supposed incompetence. The West hasn’t spared any effort towards supporting the Ukrainians in defending themselves by funding and supplying them mainly with weapons, including anti-tank and anti-air missiles.



 Consequently, according to many, the right time for the West to support Turkey and its allies in Syria politically, economically and militarily is now. The Syrian Interim Government already released an official statement requesting the West to support them militarily to counter Russia in Syria. They reiterated that they stand in solidarity with the Ukrainians and that they are the most aware of the crimes and brutality that the Russians are capable of causing. The statement added that the international powers must rectify their mistake of neglecting Russia’s expansion in Syria and that their revolution is inseparable from humanitarian values ​​and interests.

 What could such support look like? “This should be support that includes military, political and economic elements.” Else “it would be unreasonable for Turkey to enter such a risky process without receiving economic, political and military guarantees,” clarifies the Middle East researcher Levent Kamal. Dareen Khalifa can only agree: “Ankara could benefit from its allies’ military and diplomatic support to push against Russian ongoing pressures that are straining the truce.” Because one thing is certain. NATO’s refusal to stand by its partner Turkey against Russia is already being paid for in Ukraine. And the conflict could have even more far-reaching consequences if there is no early awakening: “New waves of conflict in Syria will come at a grave human cost and will have implications that go far beyond Turkey. It’s unfortunate that other NATO members are yet to take these threats seriously,” warns the analyst.'

Syrian rebels seek passage to Europe for revenge against Putin

 

 'Foreign fighters from various countries have begun making their way to Ukraine in response to Kyiv’s call for help fighting the Russian invasion – but for Syrian rebels seeking passage to eastern Europe, the battle is intensely personal.

 Several Syrian fighters in northern Syria and Turkey said they were trying to travel and take up arms against Russia.



 Since 2015, Moscow has been waging war in Syria on behalf of President Bashar al-Assad, and while Russian warplanes stage occasional air strikes, the front between opposition-held and Damascus-controlled territory has cooled in recent years.

 The opportunity to take revenge on Russia elsewhere has been too good to miss for some rebels. Particularly, some say, as foreign-brokered ceasefire agreements have restricted them from launching attacks on Russian forces in Syria.

 So far, the most prominent rebel to announce his intention to fight for Ukraine is Suheil Hammoud, a man commonly known by his honorific nickname Abu TOW, a nod to his prolific record using anti-tank missiles.

 Hammoud has reportedly destroyed 145 targets using TOW missiles, including modern Russian tanks. But his biggest scalps were two Russian MiG-23 fighter jets, which he says he hit at Aleppo military airport.

 “I am in touch with several sides to get out of Syria and reach Ukraine, to confront Russian forces along with my Ukrainian brothers,” Hammoud said from Syria’s northwestern opposition enclave of Idlib.

 “I am trying to go in person in any way. I don't plan on going with my entire team, for their safety.”



 Russia massed nearly 200,000 troops on Ukraine’s border before beginning its attack on Thursday. It is believed more than a third of those forces are now in Ukraine.

 The Ukrainians have defended well so far. During the first 24 hours of the invasion, the Russian army incurred more losses than during the eight years in the Syrian war, according to the Economist. But already Russian bombing is become fiercer and more indiscriminate.

 “It's definitely a tough and fierce battle, yet I'm ready to fight until the last Russian soldier in Ukraine, or until the fighting returns in Syria,” Hammoud said.

 “The fronts are inactive here in Idlib. Russia is unable to launch an attack in Syria in parallel with the Ukraine attack and Syrian forces are not capable of launching an attack on their own.”



 Now five days into the Ukraine war, observers are looking to Syria to draw conclusions about what might happen next. The portents are not good.

 Russian forces have been involved in killing about 7,000 civilians in Syria, according to the Paris-based Syrian Network for Human Rights. They also targeted around 1,300 vital facilities in rebel-controlled areas, including several hospitals.

 Moscow’s intervention decisively swung the conflict Assad’s way, after initially facing difficulties. Already, banned cluster weapons used by Russia in Syria have been seen deployed in Ukraine.



 Alaa Qatarmez was a sergeant in the Syrian army until 2012, when he defected to the opposition. He said that he too plans to go to Ukraine.

 “I left the rebels two years ago and now work as a vendor in Idlib because of the lack of battles,” said Qatarmez, using a pseudonym for security reasons.

 “We have innocent civilians, including children, who were killed by the attacks of Russian forces, so Russia must be fought anywhere in the world.”

 Like many other rebels and former fighters, Qatarmez has sought help travelling to Ukraine on Facebook groups.

 “I'm trying to get in touch with a Ukrainian embassy to go, or at least fighters there. I'd like to give them some of the experience we got during the war,” he said.

 “We have old vengeance against Russia, which history cannot erase. I eagerly await the day when Russia will collapse.”



 Any expectations that Syrian rebel forces might use Russia’s distraction in Ukraine as a chance to launch an offensive and regain some of the territory it lost after Moscow’s intervention should be dampened.

 Though on opposing sides in both Syria and Ukraine, rebel-backer Turkey and Russia have a pragmatic relationship that has held Syria’s northwest in a quasi-stalemate. Ankara, a member of Nato and ally of Kyiv, is proving a forceful critic of Russia and has provided material support – most notably Bayraktar TB2 combat drones.

 But it is also treading a careful line, unwilling to provoke major escalation. There is little chance it would allow Syrian rebel groups it backs to attack Russian forces, or even Assad’s.

 That hasn’t stopped some of the nearly four million Syrian refugees in Turkey from hoping for a fightback.

 “We are tired of our status as refugees. I have relatives held in Assad's prisons, and others who have been killed by Russian attacks must be avenged,” one said, speaking anonymously due to security concerns.

 “I hope that an organised attack against Russia will begin in Syria, to fight in my country,” he added.

 “But we have no leaders or an organised army, it is just sporadic factions, some of which are Islamist, which raises the concerns of the local population and western supporters.”



 The contrast between Ukraine’s potent resistance over the past few days and the collapse of the Syrian opposition cause in recent years has been galling for the refugee.

 “Ukraine has an organised army that wants to fight. Even Ukrainian politicians have taken up arms to fight the Russians, while our ineffective politicians were the first to flee Syria, 11 years ago,” they said.

 Though the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) rebel grouping on Tuesday denied it was unable to attack pro-Assad forces because of the ceasefire, fighters who have broken the truce previously have been punished.

 Last month, the release of one rebel leader, who had been expelled from the SNA and imprisoned for nearly two years for violating the truce and launching an attack on a government-controlled area, was met with celebrations by many rebels.



 The lack of room to fight in Syria likely only increases the will to wage war in Ukraine.

 “There are hundreds of fighters who would like to go to Ukraine, but it is up to our Turkish ally. Will it open the borders?” said Abu Amin, who monitors Russian and Syrian warplanes under the name Observatory 80.

 “There are young men who may go as volunteers because it is a great opportunity to take revenge on the Russian forces when they cannot launch an attack here.”

 Perhaps, he suggests wishfully, a Russian defeat in Ukraine could also turn the tables in Syria.

 “If the Russian forces in Ukraine are defeated, they will withdraw from Syria, and this means that the rebels will reach Assad's palace within weeks, ending the suffering of the Syrians forever,” Abu Amin said.'