An unhappy anniversary: Why the end of Bashar al-Assad is as far away as ever – and how Syria’s rebels lost the plot"The higher profile of the jihadists was much in the interests of the government, which had long claimed that the opposition was dominated by al-Qa’ida (true to the spirit of Middle East conspiracy theories, the opposition then claimed that Isis was in league with the government, asserting, against much evidence to the contrary, that the Syrian army and Isis seldom fought each other)."
Cockburn and Assad are the conspiracy theorists. Cockburn has claimed consistently that the insurgency was predominantly Islamic radicals fighting a sectarian war (on behalf of the West and the Gulf Co-operation Council, of course) all along, whatever the evidence to the contrary. On the other hand, there is ample evidence that the régime has backed away from any fight with ISIS [http://claysbeach.blogspot.co.uk/…/memo-isis-assad-regime-f…]
"By the end of 2012 it was clear that the rebels could not win without full-scale foreign military intervention. But to many, this was not obvious at the time because government forces pulled back from outlying positions and concentrated on holding strategic areas. A problem for the opposition was that the whole purpose of their exiled movement was to provoke a Libyan-type intervention."
Two more lies, the rebels wanted arms to finish the job themselves, not to rely on a foreign invasion, and as they had fought the régime to standstill with virtually no weapon supplies, it is not at all clear that granting those requests would not bring an end to the war and victory.
"Its main tactic is to seal off rebel-held enclaves and bombard them with artillery and from the air, so that people are forced to flee. This is hardly a way to win the hearts and minds of the population, but the rebels have not found an answer to it."
They have, it's the anti-aircraft weapons that Cockburn denies would have any effect.
"In Syria the opposition has already been fighting its own bloody civil war since 3 January. This tends to discredit all the armed opposition and is, in any case, unlikely to produce a clear winner."
The rebels take on the al-Qaida elements, and they are simply discrediting themselves. Pathetic from Cockburn.
"President Assad remains ruler of a ruined land and does not have the resources to win a decisive victory. But unless the US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies are prepared to fight a long war in order to exhaust the government in Damascus, there is no reason he should not stay in power."
Quite the opposite. As Assad can no longer rule Syria, he remains eternally a burden to his allies. It was suggested on al-Jazeera's Inside Syria today that the prospect of Assad re-taking the Qalamoun mountains and prolonging the war may finally induce the Saudis the provide heavy weaponry to the Free Syrian Army. It is to the world's shame that it is left to the most reactionary state to do the right thing.