Syria Op-Ed: Why Assad and Hezbollah Are in Trouble

"The Syrian regime in April was facing defeat with a steady stream of losses among personnel, territory, and resources and a threatened loss of control over the vital Damascus-to-Homs highway.

The Iranians and Hezbollah did not take half-measures, committing a significant portion of the Lebanese organization’s troop strength to the war. What they expected was quick and overwhelming victory. What they got was a Vietnam-like quagmire, sapping Hezbollah of thousands of its fighters and top echelon commanders.

The extent to which Hezbollah and its partners among Iraqi Shia militias have had to be used, as the vanguard of military operations on behalf of the regime, points to a seriously atrophied and ailing Syrian military. It’s “Weekend at Bernie’s” in Damascus, with Hezbollah propping up Assad’s military power. Should they pull out, the President will face quick collapse.

Recent compilation of slain Hezbollah fighters are in the hundreds, and a full casualty count is likely to be much higher. Their significant losses of manpower losses in the recent battles in Qalamoun and Damacus Rif and their trouble sustaining momentum around Safira and southeastern Aleppo Province point to a force that may still be motivated but is unable to advance."