Saturday, 5 January 2013

Undecided Syrians Could Tip Balance of Rebellion




 I think expecting the Syrian ruling class to desert its own régime en masse is to ignore the history of ruling classes, and it is more often that they are convinced that things cannot go on in the old way as much as they are by the rightness of change. While its instigation of sectarian divisions may have brought the government some breathing space,* students of revolution will also tend to say that it is by emancipating the majority that didn't benefit from the old régime that real change occurs. The understanding that it is those that have benefited from Assad's sectarian neo-liberal tyranny that support him is better than much comment on Syria, though.

 "Mr. Assad remains in power in part because two years into the uprising, a critical bloc of Syrians remains on the fence. Among them are business owners who drive the economy, bankers who finance it, and the security officials and government employees who hold the keys to the mundane but crucial business of maintaining an authoritarian state. If they abandoned the government or embraced the rebels en masse, they might change the tide."


 * Although he went on to say it might last longer, Abdel Bari Atwan on Dateline London on the BBC did repeat a story that the war is costing Assad $1bn a month, and he's only got $2bn left. He did also refer to Assad's support from "the Soviet Union" before correcting himself to Russia.

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