Barack Obama’s Courtship of Bashar al-Assad

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In a 31 March 2011 Stratfor [1154727] memo obtained by Wikileaks:

Since Mubarak has gone and Gaddhafi is under fire, Assad has more than enough reasons to be concerned about Syrian regime’s survival. Regardless of what our Syrian contacts tell us about Assad’s confidence, we know and Assad knows that he is on the thin ice and needs US/Saudi support for survival. US/Saudi (and by proxy, Qatar) back Assad not because they fear things may get worse in Lebanon. Indeed, they think this is the best time to put pressure on Assad to give concessions in Lebanon due to his current weakness. Don’t you really find it a bit unusual that Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United States did not even hesitate throwing their support behind Assad at the very beginning? Washington could have easily sent a warning to Damascus by saying that “Libya-like treatment for Syria is one of the options”. France was already willing to get engaged in Syria. But US did the contrary.

Less than a month later, Clinton was trying to strike a different tone without changing anything. Assad had greatly intensified the crackdown and people were demanding action so the leaders of the “free world” had to at least look like they were doing something.