The BBC news subtitlers have reported that President Assad of Syria may have fled to "the tackier",but are as yet silent on whether his trendy wife has been persuaded to decamp in like fashion.
I don't think any Alawi state in the north-west of Syria would last for long for a number of reasons, which I might mention a couple of after ruminating a little on an interview I saw about half-an-hour ago on the BBC with Patrick Seale, who was repeating a sadly pro-regime line, but had some interesting things to say.
I'd missed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's speech on Friday, in which he said that Western powers are trying to break up Syria, but this if anything is another reason the think the regime trying to split the country won't be acceptable to anyone but the Assad family. Seale said "Blowing up the entire military top brass is the trademark of the jihadis that gave the Americans so much trouble in Iraq," which as I've mentioned in previous posts, is one crappy theme uniting counter-revolutionaries of all stripes, that suicide bombings mean bad Muslims; but if the military hierarchy has been decimated, not so many to give the orders, it isn't just a couple of dead supervillains. Seale also said if the Americans, "Some of the weapons they throw into Syria may end up in the wrong hands", as if the Americans having so many weapons was a good thing in the first place.
Anyway, other reasons why the reign in the north-west won't last:
1. Sirte. Gadaffi was supposed to be able to hole up there indefinitely. Once he'd lost control of the state finances, once he'd lost control of the state, those who tolerate the regime because it stands for stability support it no longer, nobody can be paid (the Russians may already have the state treasury, as they took the Spanish at the start of their civil war), the only people who will fight for Assad are those whose survival depends on it, most Alawis especially those in Damascus, and other areas now likely to be lost forever to Assad, will be looking at an accommodation with the new reality, it be virtually only his family that are likely to fight to the end if they can't escape.
2.The Soviet Union was a global power in the 80s, now it is a regional power with global ambitions. Having a Med port isn't so vital that the Russians will want to flush their future influence in the region down the toilet for its sake, they are far more likely to need their Black Sea fleet against Georgia than Italy.
1. Sirte. Gadaffi was supposed to be able to hole up there indefinitely. Once he'd lost control of the state finances, once he'd lost control of the state, those who tolerate the regime because it stands for stability support it no longer, nobody can be paid (the Russians may already have the state treasury, as they took the Spanish at the start of their civil war), the only people who will fight for Assad are those whose survival depends on it, most Alawis especially those in Damascus, and other areas now likely to be lost forever to Assad, will be looking at an accommodation with the new reality, it be virtually only his family that are likely to fight to the end if they can't escape.
2.The Soviet Union was a global power in the 80s, now it is a regional power with global ambitions. Having a Med port isn't so vital that the Russians will want to flush their future influence in the region down the toilet for its sake, they are far more likely to need their Black Sea fleet against Georgia than Italy.
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